CWG Investment Committee: A November to Remember
Our November election period came and went smoothly with Republicans winning a majority of votes while capturing the House, Senate and Presidency. Markets responded favorably here in the USA.
The major averages closed the month at or near all-time highs. For 2024 the S&P 500 is up 26.5%, Nasdaq 28.0%, Dow Jones 19.2%, and the small- cap Russell 2000 has gained 20.1%. All very impressive gains.
Corporate profits have been strong this year, causing even the most well-known investment gurus to undershoot the levels attained. Many are now upping their 2025 targets.
The S&P 500 remains at a lofty level with a forward earnings expectation of $263.58. The price earnings multiple sits at 22.9 times, which is at the high end of its historical range.
Bull markets start with fear and end in euphoria, Sir John Templeton once said, and we have seen some signs of the latter emotion now. Bitcoin, the most speculative of assets, gained 40% in the month of November as it neared $100,000 at month end.
Bull markets however do not end due to high valuations rather, a negative catalyst is typically needed. The two most important drivers of the market are interest rates and earnings. Both are in good standing as short rates are going lower, and earnings are expected to rise next year.
The Federal Reserve lowered its short-term Fed Funds rate by another 0.25% and is expected to do it again in December.
Two-year U.S. treasuries yield 4.20% with 10-year notes at 4.21%. We no longer have an inverted yield curve.
Unemployment is circling 4.1% and inflation as measured by the CPI is around 2.6%, down from 9.1% two years ago.
Sentiment among both US and Foreign investors is overwhelmingly positive, which is a bit concerning. U.S. stocks now represent 66.7% of the MSCI All Country Index, another record high.
As 2025 approaches we are considering the positive and negatives coming out of Washington from an investment standpoint.
President-elect Trump is choosing his cabinet and speaking loudly about imposing high tariffs on friendly and foe nations alike for various reasons. Taxes and tariffs will be high on his list to negotiate with a Republican majority legislature at his disposal.
We expect continued large deficits and debt payments in the coming years. Unfortunately an additional $1 trillion dollars of debt is added every 100 days. This situation will take considerable time and effort to get under control.
The Treasury nominee Scott Bessent was well received by the bond market with hopes for less spending by the new Congress. A task force of cost cutters have been charged with finding savings of $2 trillion dollars.
Our expectation is that Washington will be a source of market volatility in 2025. A typical 10% market correction would not be surprising given two consecutive years with the S&P 500 returning over 25%.
We look forward to helping you better refine and define your goals for the future while setting your portfolio up for success in the coming years.